Bell s implied probability of winning based on his +450 odds is 18.2%, meaning the oddsmakers give the 27-year-old just under a 1-in-5 chance of reaching victory lane on Sunday.
But he ll have to fend off not just Truex but a star-studded field that includes Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson, who have combined to win six races so far in 2024.
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NASCAR New Hampshire Predictions
Despite coming in as the favorite, Bell hasn t won since his victory in Charlotte back in May, which snapped a nine-race winless drought to open the season. While he has performed well with three straight top-10s, it s tough to support him at a high price when his own teammate has had more success at this track.
Instead, Truex is the best bet on the board at +500 odds. The 42-year-old veteran leads all active drivers with 426 laps led across his last two starts at New Hampshire, including a win in 2023 when he led 254 of 301 laps from the pole.
He has mastered this 1.058-mile oval and is overdue for his first win in his 19th and final full-time Cup Series season before retirement.
Martin Truex, Jr. hasn t started to schedule races for 2025, but says New Hampshire is a track he d like to return to.
Truex says he and Denny Hamlin chatted a couple times this week after Hamlin expressed interest in fielding another 23XI entry for him in the Daytona 500.
Joseph Srigley (@joe_srigley)
Hamlin also warrants a look at +600 as he aims for his fourth career win at New Hampshire and first since 2017. The three-time Daytona 500 winner boasts the best average finish (9.4) of any active driver at this track and has a remarkable 12 straight top-15 finishes here dating back to 2012.
He ranks second in laps led (972) in 28 career starts and has been crushing on short, flat tracks so far this season.
Ultimately, I expect one of those three and, more broadly, one of the eight Toyota drivers to take the checkered flag on Sunday. Toyota is priced at even money (+100) to win this race and has seen its drivers finish first or second in 11 of the last 12 years at New Hampshire.
Joe Gibbs Racing, specifically, has won five of the last seven races here and a record 13 times overall. That level of manufacturer dominance is impossible to ignore.
Winner Picks:
Martin Truex Jr. (+500)
Toyota (+100)
